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The brokerage has a target price of Rs 26 for the RCom scrip.Īccording to analysts at IDFC, RCom’s “residual business with an estimated Ebitda profile of at best Rs 2,000 crore would initially have limited cash to service Rs 19,000 crore of debt”.īank of America-Merrill Lynch expects the telco to incur losses of Rs 3,700 crore, Rs 3,500 crore and Rs 2,900 crore in fiscal 2018, FY19 and FY20, respectively, compared the brokerage’s earlier estimates of Rs 2,200, Rs 1,900 crore and Rs 1,200 crore.Īnalysts said RCom is likely to swiftly lose market share to Reliance Jio as well as Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, and be left with precious little for capital expenditure after meeting huge interest obligations. On RCom’s merger plan with Aircel, IDFC said the combined entity, tentatively named AirCom, would have a 10% revenue market share, but face challenges from a combination of “sub-optimal quality customers, a Rs 35,000 crore debt burden and a net debt-to-Ebitda over 7x”. In the immediate term, most analysts have not factored in any potential benefits from the two deals the company said it is close to completing. Several brokerage firms also raised concerns over RCom’s performance, with some of them lowering their estimates on the company. ICRA said it had taken a consolidated view of the RCom group, including units Reliance Telecom and Reliance Infratel. “The revision in ratings takes into consideration the delays in debt servicing by RCom Group, given its weak internal cash flow generation as against sizeable debt servicing obligations,” ICRA said in an official statement Tuesday. ICRA downgraded the long-term rating of RCom’s non-convertible debentures worth Rs 5,000 crore, bank credits aggregating Rs 35,430 crore and Rs 2,000 crore of commercial paper programme. The ratings firm attributed the revision to delays by RCom in servicing the debt obligations as a result of significant stress on its cash flows and high levels of debt repayment.
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In a media statement, CARE said it downgraded bank facilities worth Rs 17,356 crore and debt facilities aggregating Rs 3,630 crore to default. The shares closed at Rs 20.05, still 2.2% lower from Monday. On Tuesday, its shares hit a new low of Rs 18.95 in the morning trade on the BSE, before rising to as high as Rs 22.40 as the company said it is just four months away from completing the deals with Aircel and Brookfield. However, some analysts expect the merged RCom-Aircel wireless entity and the residual business to have their own set of challenges. Analysts predict it to report heavy losses and sliding revenue for the next two years, even as RCom said its deals to merge wireless operations with Aircel and sell a 51% stake in a tower unit to Canada’s Brookfield will help repay Rs25,000 crore of loans and mend finances. The company posted nearly Rs 1,000 crore of consolidated loss in the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31. The Anil Ambani-controlled company is struggling to service debt of over Rs 44,000 crore, even as it is pushed to the side in the telecom industry where newcomer Reliance Jio Infocomm and its three larger rivals are fighting an intense battle for market share. ICRA and CARE lowered their grading of debt instruments several notches to the default status, citing similar reasons. Moody’s cut RCom’s debt ratings to Caa1 from B2, suggesting very high risk of default, and said those were on review for further downgrade because of the company’s “weak operating performance, high leverage and fragile liquidity position”. Kolkata: Moody’s Investors Service and local ratings firms ICRA and CARE downgraded Reliance Communications on Tuesday, a day when the telecom operator’s shares hit an all-time low as concerns grew over its mountain of debt.